Annual seasonal influenza epidemics typically affect 5-15% of the population with respiratory tract infections which can range from mild to severe, leading to death. On a global basis around 3-5 million cases of severe influenza illness are estimated each year with an associated 290,000 – 650,000 deaths (WHO figures). Annual influenza vaccination is the most effective method for preventing influenza virus infection and its complications, now more so with the endemic circulation of SARS-CoV-2. Recommended groups for influenza vaccination are usually those most vulnerable and include the elderly, the very young, and those with underlying chronic diseases. In the US, influenza vaccination recommendations for some years have included every person >6 mos, and many countries are now also widening their recommendations to include additional groups including children.
With new WHO recommendations (February 2024) seasonal influenza vaccines will convert back to the trivalent inactivated format (TIV) due to the disappearance of the B/Yamagata component included in quadrivalent vaccines (QIV). Many developed Western markets also feature ‘improved’ or ‘differentiated’ influenza vaccines such as high dose (HD), cell-based, and adjuvanted formats. For the first time, in 2022, US ACIP recommendations took a preferential stance for differentiated vaccines in the >65 yrs elderly segment. mRNA-based influenza vaccines are poised to enter the US market in 2025-26 having shown immunogenicity in Phase 3 trials also with combination approaches including COVID-19 antigens. For industry analysts, there is much debate about how much of an impact the mRNA platform can have on the global influenza vaccine market.
For July 2022 VacZine Analytics has refreshed its global seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast to now include mRNA-based monovalent and combination vaccines. MarketVIEW: seasonal influenza vaccines is a comprehensive MS Excel-based model (.xls) and Executive presentation (.pdf) that forecasts the potential demand volume and commercial value of seasonal influenza vaccines across 13 major individual Western and 37 emerging or rest of world (ROW) markets to 2035. The model contains validated volume (mio doses) estimates for all recommended target groups per country based on a thorough investigation of national recommendations and policy and detailed country-specific vaccine coverage rates. Country market values are ascertained by a pricing methodology based upon public/private sector prices for TIVs, high dose (HD), LAIV, and mRNA, where the impact of discounting/return is explored. The analysis contains a detailed US forecast by product type and individual competitor including CSL Seqirus TIV (Flucelvax/Afluria) and MF-59 adjuvanted FLUAD, the Sanofi Pasteur SD and HD portfolio (including Fluzone-HD + Flublok), the GSK and AstraZeneca portfolios and pending mRNA products. An updated methodology is presented with demand by competitor/vaccine type analysis across the EU28/51 region.
For research and development, key late-stage programs are also assessed for market entry along with the new mRNA monovalent and COVID-19 combinations e.g., ModernaTX, mRNA-1083, Pfizer PF-07926307, and protein-based combinations e.g., Novavax/Sanofi CIC, currently in Phase 3 efficacy trials. To inform our market assumptions, an n=540 consumer research survey for persons >50 yrs is an additional option to this study.
VacZine Analytics is a strategic research publisher based in the United Kingdom since 2007. We aim to provide disease and commercial analysis for the vaccine industry and help build the case for developing new vaccines and biologics.
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