Dengue Fever (DF) is a mosquito-borne disease (Aedes sp.) caused by single-stranded RNA viruses of the family flaviviridae. DF has a wide spectrum of symptoms ranging from mild febrile illness to severe outcomes such as hospitalization and death, as observed in dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Published estimates (although now dated) suggest that 390m dengue infections occur each year of which 20-30% are symptomatic (any severity) and 17-49K deaths occur (Bhatt S et al 2013). It is estimated that 3.9bn of the global population (~90 countries) are thought to be at risk from dengue infection, mainly urban dwellers in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Importantly, most of the estimated deaths per year are in children (<15 yrs). No specific treatment for dengue fever is available and mosquito control efforts have had limited success.
Dengue fever cases are at a record high in 2024 with ~12.4m probable cases reported (as of 16th September 2024) and ~7.8K deaths (WHO Global dengue surveillance). Brazil is particularly affected by dengue prompting the health authorities to begin mass vaccination campaigns with Takeda Vaccines Qdenga® (previously termed TAK-003) in priority age groups in certain high-transmission municipalities. Argentinian authorities have also started public vaccination campaigns with Qdenga® in certain high-risk provinces including the capital region, Buenos Aires.
Qdenga®, which is undergoing further global registrations, is expected to face competition in the PAHO region from Instituto Butantans’ single-dose vaccine (Butantan-DV, NIAID-licensed) that has also met endpoints in a large Brazil-based Phase 3 study. Qdenga® is a 2-dose schedule vaccine. Other dengue vaccines such as Merck & Co, V181, Panacea Biotech, DengiAll and KM Biologics/Meiji Seika Pharma, KD-382 + others are in development.
For 2024 VacZine Analytics has updated its MarketVIEW: dengue endemic vaccines study last published in September 2021. The study consists of a detailed Executive presentation (>375 slides, .pdf) and a comprehensive MS-Excel forecast model (250 worksheets) which quantify the potential commercial value of dengue endemic vaccine(s) by competitor across 55 endemic markets to 2036. The model(s) contain value ($ m) and volume (mio doses) predictions (public and private sector) in adjustable age segments e.g., >4 yrs, >19 yrs. Model LO, BASE and HI forecast scenarios include potential demand from selected country mass campaigns, routine inclusion and expected approvals from 2022 onwards. An intra-state or region roll-out analysis is also included for Brazil and The Philippines. For this updated 2024 version, new case studies based on the latest Qdenga® deployment and pricing are used to refresh forecast uptake projections.
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