Shocks and crises surround us. Listen to a news broadcast, pick up a newspaper, or open a topical website, and we are bombarded by accounts of fires, floods, wars, economic problems and health scares.
Yet shocks and crises are discrete events, often with immediate impact such as houses burning down and cars floating down rivers. Such events differ from long-term trends, which are movements or directions, and they differ even more from megatrends.
Understanding megatrends and their long-term impacts on society
“Megatrends are systemic and often gradual forces that impact our lives in ways that are different from the sudden impact caused by crises and shocks,” says Michael Kitson, Associate Professor in International Macroeconomics at Cambridge Judge. “Such shocks usually call for an immediate reaction, such as the global vaccination effort triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Megatrends, in contrast, are global forces such as climate change and inequality that usually need a longer-term response.”
Research by Michael and colleagues focuses on how such megatrends – and their interaction with crises, shocks and other events – impact regions, cities and countries, and what policymakers can do to respond to these challenges.
“A city or a region or a country doesn’t cause megatrends, but local mayors and other officials nonetheless face the duty of responding to these huge challenges and adapting to them,” says Michael.
“The megatrend that many people have focused a lot on in the past decade or so is climate change. In the past few years, the ramifications of AI (artificial intelligence) have been centre-stage, and even more recently the world is changing due to global politics including the re-election of Donald Trump and the re-emergence of protectionism and trade wars,” he says.
The interactions of megatrends are explored in a special issue of the Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, with an introductory article co-authored by Michael. The issue includes articles by experts ranging from historians to city planners to behavioural scientists. While there have been previous issues of the journal that explore the local or spatial impact of global issues (including inequality, China’s belt and road initiative, and the consequences of deglobalisation), the special issue on megatrends differs because it centres around “the idea that in today’s turbulent times, many crises and (mega)trends co-exist simultaneously and, crucially, are interconnected”.
Michael and his co-authors note that while the meaning of a crisis like a raging wildfire is usually very clear to victims and observers alike, the concept of a megatrend is less clearly observable – but this concept is essential to an understanding of our world and the economic forces affecting our societies.
The megatrend that many people have focused a lot on in the past decade or so is climate change. In the past few years, the ramifications of AI (artificial intelligence) have been centre-stage, and even more recently the world is changing due to global politics including the re-election of Donald Trump and the re-emergence of protectionism and trade wars.
Michael Kitson, Associate Professor in International Macroeconomics
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