The article 'Forecasting the 2012 French Presidential Election' from Martial Foucault and Richard Nadeau of the University of Montreal makes the bold prediction that Sarkozy will lose the May election by a small margin.
Foucault and Nadeau have adopted the French tradition of forecasting electoral results from political-economy models. Examining both local and national voting patterns in every election from 1981 to 2007 and using models that include economic factors (such as unemployment) as well as other political variables. They predict Sarkozy's defeat in the second round.
The four-part article reviews the literature on French forecasting models, outlines the main features of the French electoral system, introduces Foucault and Nadeau's model and the data examined and finally, discusses the predictions derived from this model, including their forecast for the 2012 election.
Reproduced courtesy of Cambridge University Press.
For further information, please contact Vicky Westmore at press@cambridge.org
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