CFO perceptions of external uncertainty have fallen to the lowest level in more than eight years;
Business confidence among finance leaders has risen for the fourth consecutive quarter;
CFOs’ expectations for corporate revenue growth have risen to their highest level in two-and-a-half years;
Finance chiefs suggest that the new government should prioritise industrial policy and planning reform to boost UK growth and productivity.
CFOs of the UK's largest firms are more optimistic about prospects for their own business following the election, according to Deloitte's latest CFO survey. Sentiment has risen for the fourth consecutive quarter, with a net 23%1 of finance leaders more positive about the financial prospects of their businesses than they were in the previous edition.
Richard Houston, senior partner and chief executive of Deloitte UK, said: “We’ve seen a significant shift in risk appetite post the general election and the new government’s focus on growth and stability is already increasing corporate confidence.
“Business leaders want industrial strategy to be top of the new government’s economic priorities, and there’s a clear desire to work in partnership to unlock growth and drive productivity. This will be critical to delivering an inclusive and sustainable future for the UK.”
Corporate risk appetite on the rise
Corporate risk appetite saw its biggest rise in more than four years in this quarter’s survey, with 36% of finance chiefs reporting that now is a good time to take greater risk onto their balance sheets. Perceptions of external uncertainty fell to the lowest level in more than eight years, with only 23% of finance leaders rating the level of external financial and economic uncertainty facing their business as ‘high’ or ‘very high’.
Ian Stewart, chief economist, said: “Finance leaders have entered the second half of the year in a confident mood. This is not solely a sentiment story, as expectations for revenue growth have also risen sharply.
“Perceptions of uncertainty have fallen in the wake of the election and against a background of low inflation and a recovering economy. With corporate risk appetite on the rise, business is gearing up for growth.”
Improving outlook for corporate revenues
CFOs’ expectations for corporate revenues rose to their highest level in two-and-a-half years in July and are running at twice the long-run average2. A net 64% of finance leaders now expect UK corporates’ revenues to increase over the next 12 months, a significant jump from the net 42% seen last quarter.
Ian Stewart added: “The willingness of business to take risk onto their balance sheet is at the highest level since the UK was recovering from the pandemic-induced recession in the spring of 2021. A more predictable business environment has boosted the spirits of the corporate sector, and shows that the worries around Brexit, COVID-19, inflation and politics that have weighed on corporate spirit for much of the last eight years are clearing.”
Commenting on the survey findings, Julian Rae, Cambridge Office Senior Partner said, “The results of our most recent CFO Survey are encouraging, and reflect the conversations we have been having with businesses in the East of England in recent weeks.”
Defensive strategy and risk
Reducing cost and increasing cashflow remain the top two priorities for finance leaders over the next 12 months, with CFOs rating each at 51% and 35% respectively. The percentage of respondents who rated these as a strong priority has dropped from the previous quarter (56% and 43% respectively), with the focus on increasing cashflow at its lowest level in almost two years and below the average since the question was first asked3.
Along with reduced uncertainty and an improved outlook for revenues, finance leaders have also reported an improvement in credit conditions. They rated credit as being more available than at any time in the last two years, with a net 42% of the panel reporting that it is easily available.
Meanwhile, geopolitics remains the top risk4 to business for CFOs, as it has been for much of the last two-and-a-half years. This quarter’s reading is its joint highest rating since Q1 2022, when the conflict in Ukraine began, with a weighted average of 705.
Priorities for the new government
This quarter’s survey included two special questions on the topic of the 2024 general election. Firstly, finance chiefs were asked about the impact of the election on their own plans for capital expenditure, deal-making or hiring over the next year. The balance of opinion among the CFOs was tilted towards the election having a mildly positive effect (21%), with the majority (69%) believing the election would have little or no impact on their plans.
CFOs were also asked what they think the top economic priorities for the newly elected government should be. Industrial strategy emerged as the top priority, with a weighted average rating of 756 followed by planning reform (73).
